本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Unemployment holds steady but may get worse before it improves, warn analysts

SANDRA CORDON
Canadian Press

OTTAWA (CP) - Canada's jobless situation could get
worse before it begins to get better, analysts warned
Friday. The national unemployment rate held steady at
seven per cent in June for the fourth consecutive month,
but lurking behind that seemingly benign report was some
negative news.

After adding a modest number of jobs over the past six
months, the still-lacklustre economy actually shed about
13,000 positions in June.

On top of that, the average number of hours worked has
dropped in the past three months by almost seven per cent
compared with the first quarter of 2001.

In the current sluggish economy, said economist Warren
Lovely of CIBC World Markets, even employers who
don't want to lay off staff are cutting back work hours.

"The bottom line is, this report shows that the Canadian labour market had been living on borrowed time," said
Lovely.

Even worse, most of the new jobs created this year were part-time positions, which tend to pay less, have less
security and mean lower productivity.

"It's not a good trade-off, to trade full-time workers for part-time workers and that's increasingly what the
Canadian economy has done . . . so you get an increasing stock of under-utilized labour," said Lovely.

The jobless rate could continue to edge up through the second half of this year, possibly as high as 7.5 per cent
before the economy turns around, analysts warned.

"I think we're going to see the unemployment rate go higher before it goes lower," warned Peter Drake, deputy
chief economist with Toronto Dominion Bank.

The latest U.S. unemployment report also brought grim news Friday, showing the jobless rate there rose to 4.5 per
cent from 4.4 per cent the previous month as businesses cut 114,000 jobs in June.

Still, some analysts say the picture isn't entirely bleak.

The two weak jobless reports give central bankers plenty of evidence to continue lowering interest rates in the
hope of stimulating growth.

And those lower rates are helping to buoy consumer spirits.

"A few factors behind that (consumer confidence) are that interest rates remain very low, we did have tax cuts and
- despite the slowdown - we still have an unemployment rate of seven per cent, which is quite low," said Doug
Porter, senior economist with brokerage Nesbitt Burns.

"Quite simply, a lot of factors that consumers worry about aren't that negative," he added.

"They can read the headlines about a slowdown, but in the average person's day-to-day life, it's not obvious yet."

Analysts have been divided over whether the Bank of Canada would see enough economic weakness, both here and
in the U.S., to again lower interest rates at its next scheduled meeting July 17.

But several now say Friday's report tips the balance towards at least one and maybe two more rate cuts this
summer.

"This report says rates need to come down here in Canada, still," said Lovely.

"The Canadian economy still needs monetary stimulus and this . . . gives the (central bank) governor the cover he
needs to take interest rates lower."

The bank has lowered its key lending rate by 1.25 percentage points so far this year to try to kick-start the
sluggish economy.

That's far less than the 2.75-percentage-point cut in the U.S., which has been hit much harder by the economic
slowdown.

The Canadian dollar was rattled by the labour news, falling to 65.67 cents US, down 0.39 cents from Thursday's
close.

Students bore the brunt of Friday's weak job report from Statistics Canada. Employment among youth dropped
by 26,000 last month.

That was partly offset by a small rise in the number of jobs held by adult men, while women over 25 saw their rate
remain stable.

Despite the June loss of jobs, the number of people looking for work also dropped - students, for the most part -
which helped hold the jobless rate steady.

About 1.132 million people sought work in June.

Alberta's booming energy sector helped the province add 8,000 new jobs, but its unemployment rate edged up to
4.6 per cent as more people looked for work.

In contrast, British Columbia lost 16,000 part-time jobs while in Ontario employment was little changed and its
jobless rate edged up to six per cent.

Quebec saw a jump in part-time work which offset a decline in full-time jobs. A drop in the number of job-seekers,
however, pushed its unemployment rate down slightly to 8.8 per cent.

--

A quick look at June jobs (May in brackets):

Unemployment rate: 7.0 per cent (7.0)

Number unemployed: 1,132,100 (1,137,400)

Number working: 15,095,700 (15,108,700)

Youth (15-24 years) unemployment: 12.0 per cent (12.1)

Men (25 plus) unemployment: 6.2 per cent (6.2)

Women (25 plus) unemployment: 5.8 per cent (5.8)

--

Here's what happened in the provinces, with the May rate in brackets.

-Newfoundland 15.2 (15.6)

-Prince Edward Island 10.0 (12.0)

-Nova Scotia 10.1 (10.0)

-New Brunswick 10.5 (11.2)

-Quebec 8.8 (9.0)

-Ontario 6.0 (5.9)

-Manitoba 5.4 (4.9)

-Saskatchewan 5.6 (6.3)

-Alberta 4.6 (4.5)

-British Columbia 7.0 (6.8)

Statistics Canada also released seasonally adjusted, three-month moving average unemployment rates for major
cities but cautioned the figures may fluctuate widely because they are based on small statistical samples. The
previous three-month moving average is in brackets.

-St. John's, Nfld., 8.8 (8.1)

-Halifax, 6.6 (6.7)

-Saint John, N.B., 9.1 (9.7)

-Chicoutimi-Jonquiere, Que., 10.8 (11.1)

-Quebec, 8.8 (8.3)

-Trois-Rivieres, Que., 7.9 (8.2)

-Sherbrooke, Que., 7.2 (8.0)

-Montreal, 8.2 (8.0)

-Ottawa-Hull, 5.7 (5.6)

-Toronto, 6.0 (5.9)

-Hamilton, 6.5 (6.2)

-Kitchener, Ont., 5.7 (5.6)

-London, Ont., 6.3 (6.1)

-Oshawa, Ont., 5.2 (5.3)

-St. Catharines-Niagara, Ont., 6.4 (6.6)

-Sudbury, Ont., 8.1 (8.0)

-Thunder Bay, Ont., 7.7 (8.0)

-Windsor, Ont., 6.5 (6.8)

-Winnipeg, 5.2 (5.1)

-Regina, 5.9 (5.6)

-Saskatoon, 6.3 (6.3)

-Calgary, 4.2 (4.3)

-Edmonton, 5.3 (5.4)

-Vancouver, 5.5 (5.4)

-Victoria, 6.3 (5.8)更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net

but not for it, i am pretty sure the rate for it has been raised a lot.

本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Webvan set to shut down

Struggling online grocer set to announce shutdown, Chapter 11

July 9, 2001: 6:55 a.m. ET


OAKLAND, Calif. (CNN) - Troubled online grocer Webvan Group Inc. apparently has lost its battle to stay alive and is expected to announce Monday that it has shut down its operations and may be filing for bankruptcy protection.

Setting the stage for the shutdown, Webvan employees in Oakland were called into emergency meetings Sunday night and told of the latest development, employees exiting the Webvan facility said.

"They called us into a room and told us they had filed Chapter 11," Webvan (WBVN: Research, Estimates) employee Jim Aust said. "That we were done as of now. We were finished."

Employees also were given notice of a shutdown at the company's Seattle facility.




"It was unfair, because they screwed up our livelihoods," said Webvan worker Tracy Owens. "They played with our whole lives. I left a job with six years to come here. It's just completely unfair."

A spokesman would not confirm Webvan's status.

"We will be issuing a statement at 5:30 (8:30 a.m. EDT) Monday morning," said Bud Grebey of Webvan media relations. The company also has scheduled a news conference for the same time at its Foster City, Calif., headquarters, Grebey told CNN.

Calls to the company's 800 number were answered with the recorded message, "Our customer service center is currently closed."

The Webvan Web site, Webvan.com, was inaccessible.

In April, Webvan canceled service in Atlanta, cut its work force and named a new chief executive as part of a corporate-wide restructuring effort to keep the company afloat. At that point, the company had 3,500 employees.

Webvan's stock closed Friday at 6 cents a share.

Under Chapter 11 of federal bankruptcy laws, a company is protected from creditors, usually as it tries to reorganize.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net

本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Jul. 9, 2001. 01:30 AM

Week ahead: No recovery soon
Bulls run in Pamplona but bears run markets after bleak reports
Patrick Cain
THESTAR.COM
A discouraging week on markets in Toronto
and New York left analysts with intensified
fears that a turnaround in the North American
economy won't occur before 2002.

And analysts are predicting that the second
quarter will be the year's worst for corporate
profits, especially among tech firms - so
results expected this week aren't likely to
give investors comfort.

Among U.S. firms announcing quarterly
results this week are Motorola Inc. (NYSE:
MOT) and Yahoo Corp. (Nasdaq: YHOO),
both Wednesday, and Internet equipment
maker Juniper Networks (Nasdaq: JNPR)
on Thursday.

"The weak economic numbers out (last
Friday) morning blew a chill into the market,"
said Nereo Piticco of Toronto-based PCJ
Investment Counsel, referring to corporate
profit warnings and government reports that more Canadians and
Americans were out of work last month.

He added that the profit warnings disappointed investors hoping the worst
was over.

"Everybody is wanting to believe all the bad news is in the marketplace,
but we keep getting it."

Investors simply see no reason to buy, knowing that starting this month
hundreds of companies in a cross-section of industries will release dismal
second-quarter earnings, an Associated Press analysis explained Friday.

Since May, more than 720 firms have warned that results will miss
expectations, outnumbering those of last year's second quarter 3 to 1,
according to Thomson Financial/First Call.

For the week, the TSE gave away 142.23 points, and the near-term
outlook isn't rosy with a host of companies getting set to release quarterly
results. The Dow lost 249.72 points for the week - or 2.4 per cent - after
dropping 227.18 to 10,252.68 on Friday, its seventh straight weekly
decline.

Those who had been arguing for a sunnier view of the markets made the
best of the numbers.

"We have to reset our image of a bull market - not of a virile, robust bull,
but a skinny, scrawny bull,'' said Jon Brorson, director of equities at
Northern Trust in Chicago.

The Canadian dollar also lost some of the momentum it had held since
the previous Friday, when the loonie closed over 66 cents (U.S.) for the
first time since February. It closed Friday at 65.67 cents (.S.), down 0.43
of a cent (U.S.) from Thursday.

Traders reacted to a Statistics Canada report showing the national
unemployment rate was steady in June at seven per cent, but there was a
loss of 13,000 jobs during the month.

"One of the things that had driven the Canadian dollar up was the talk that
the Bank of Canada wouldn't be cutting rates," said Avery Shenfeld,
senior economist and currency specialist at CIBC World Markets.

"With the weakness in the Canadian employment numbers, the market is
now assuming rates will fall here, and that makes investments in Canadian
dollars less attractive."

The American jobs outlook was also poor. The U.S. Labour department
reported unemployment in June rose to 4.5 per cent as businesses cut
114,000 jobs.

The Canadian dollar will also continue to fluctuate somewhat wildly,
Shenfeld predicted.

"We're going to continue to have a fair bit of volatility, and continue to
weaken with the slower pace of economic activity."

The week ahead:

Monday, in Washington, the U.S. Federal Reserve Board reports on
consumer credit for May.

Wednesday in Montreal, hardware operator Rona Ltd. holds a special
shareholders meeting to approve its acquisition of Revy Home Centres
Inc., creating Canada's biggest chain of home renovation stores.

Thursday in Washington, the U.S. Labour Department reports on weekly
jobless claims. In New York, the largest U.S. retailers announce their
sales figures for June.

Friday in Washington, the U.S. Commerce Department reports on retail
sales for June and the Labour Department reports on the producer price
index for June.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net

本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛July 9, 2001


Second quarter will be year's worst for corporate profits: analysts


WOJTEK DABROWSKI
Canadian Press

A trader rests his chin in his hand as he works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, last Friday afternoon. (AP/Richard Drew)


TORONTO (CP) - A slow economic recovery in Canada and the U.S. and a slew of earnings warnings have analysts predicting the second quarter will be this year's worst for corporate profits - and investor confidence.

"Canada has a pretty important energy sector, so we're going to be buoyed by that," said Mario Angastiniotis, senior economist with Standard and Poor's MMS. "But we're not going to avoid the pounding from the technology side of things."

The prelude to that pounding has already begun, with global high-tech leaders announcing profit warnings or otherwise lowering expectations both in Canada and the United States.

Nortel Networks Corp. made headlines last month when it announced it expects to report a loss of $19.2 billion US in the second quarter - by far the biggest three-month loss in Canadian corporate history.

JDS Uniphase Corp., another high-tech giant, is also expected to fare poorly, after it announced in June that its sales for the quarter will be $100 million less than previously expected because of continued weakness in telecom spending.

Most companies release second-quarter earnings in mid-July and since corporate profits are the key driving force in the marketplace, the impact of a profit-weak quarter could seriously affect investor confidence.

This chill effect was evidenced recently when brokerage powerhouse Merrill Lynch & Co. warned that its second-quarter earnings will be significantly lower than expected - dragging down the financial-services sector on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

The brokerage said revenues from stock and bond trading were particularly weak, indicative of feeble investor confidence in light of poor corporate profits.

"You can see a buyer strike going on here, in a sense of 'why buy today?' " said Brian Acker, chief investment officer at Acker Finley Inc.

"I think the market is telling you every day that it's looking beyond (the fourth quarter) now for a recovery," Acker added.

S&P's Angastiniotis was a bit more optimistic but also didn't predict a runaway rebound.

"It's going to be a slow dredging out from the bottom," he said.

"I think, given the slow pace of recovery in the U.S., the third quarter is going to be compromised as well."

To make things worse, the high-tech sector is just one of several which are announcing dismal profits.

In the U.S., Federated Department Stores, owner of Bloomingdale's and other big retail names, jolted the market last week by marking down its profit expectations by about one-third.

In the automotive sector, DaimlerChrysler is restructuring its Chrysler arm, which lost $1.2 billion US in the first quarter.

However, the Canadian energy sector has remained healthy. For example, Calgary-based Suncor Energy Inc. said Thursday that higher production and lower taxes will translate into second-quarter earnings 25 per cent higher than in the first quarter.

That's because oil and gas prices have stayed solid in the first six months of the year, slipping only in the past few weeks, Angastiniotis said.

However, this might mean the energy sector in the next three months "may not be as rosy as it was in the first or second quarter, but still relatively healthy," he said.

Meanwhile, all the earnings gloom provides the perfect climate for bottom-feeding - buying stocks when they're undervalued - says Fred Ketchen, managing director of equity trading at Scotia McLeod.

Says Ketchen: "People who want to buy stocks ought to live by the principle of 'buy low, sell high,' rather than the other way around."更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net