ByJoe Barnes, BRUSSELS CORRESPONDENT
Who is sending tanks?
The UK became the first Western nation to promise the delivery of a Nato-standard main battle tank to Ukraine when it offered a squadron of 14 Challenger 2s.
The move ramped up pressure on Germany to permit countries to re-export its Leopard 2 tank, with Poland becoming the first nation to make an official request to do so.
The likes of Sweden, Finland, Spain, Norway and the Netherlands have signalled a willingness to join an international coalition helping to deliver the German-made main battle tank to Ukraine.
Germany could also follow suit in sending a number of Leopards from its own tank fleet.
The United States is also likely to announce that it will commit at least 30 of its M1 Abrams main battle tanks to Ukraine, while France is pondering over whether it can spare a number of its Leclerc tanks for the effort.
Why has it taken so long?
The West has been careful not to give offensive weapons to Ukraine for fear of provoking Vladimir Putin. But that logic has slowly been eroded as Russia’s attacks have become more egregious and Ukraine’s chances of winning have increased.
Kyiv’s international backers initially decided deep-fire artillery and air defence systems would be more suitable donations to help the Ukrainian armed forces defend against the Russian invasion.
In recent weeks, an apparent window has opened, during which Nato military planners believe that by creating a “critical mass” of armour – tanks and infantry fighting vehicles – in Ukraine, its armed forces would be able to turn the tide of war and win back more territory captured by Russia.
The tank of choice for Ukraine’s military is the German-made Leopard 2 because of their availability across more than a dozen Nato armies.
But for these to be donated to Kyiv, Berlin would have to sign export licences.
Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, delayed any decision on whether to grant permission. Initially, he feared providing Ukraine with heavy armour would increase the risk of a direct confrontation between Nato and Russia.
He then claimed that Berlin could never go it alone with tanks, insisting other allies must, especially Washington, follow suit.
However, international pressure from its Nato allies and Kyiv has seemingly forced Berlin to overcome its reluctance to free the Leopard.
How can they change the war?
Western main battle tanks, and their Soviet-built counterparts, will help enable Ukraine’s armed forces to conduct more mechanised warfare against the Russian military to liberate territory.
In an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think-tank, analysts wrote the West’s reluctance to send heavy armour had hindered Ukraine’s ability to launch a significant counter-offensive.
Military experts inside Nato believe that with enough tanks, Ukraine would be able to push into Russian-held areas previously unreachable with the equipment its soldiers once had.
The appearance of Western tanks, designed to destroy Soviet-era armour, on the battlefield could also provide Kyiv’s forces with a serious psychological boost, while terrifying their Russian enemy.
How many do they need?
Last December, Valery Zaluzhny, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, said that Kyiv would need 300 main battle tanks and other weapons systems in order to launch a counter-offensive.
Ukraine has always been outnumbered by Russia when it comes to tanks on the battlefield.
It is believed Kyiv started with 900 Soviet-manufactured T-64s, T72s and T-80s. Since then, it has captured as many as 500 extra tanks from Russian forces, although a large number were thought to be in a dire state.
But Ukraine has also lost a significant number of tanks, some 450, according to Oryx, a consultancy that tracks battlefield losses.
Russia has, however, lost a significantly larger number of tanks, with Oryx estimating that to be more than 1,630 since the beginning of the war.
Can Ukraine win the war?
With the current conflict at somewhat of a stalemate, military experts believe planned offensives by both Russia and Ukraine could play a decisive role in the outcome of the war.
Ukraine has received a significant number of deep-fire artillery systems. But without tanks, it has often been unable to break through Russian defensive lines.
Combining heavy artillery, heavy armour and lighter infantry fighting vehicles in combined arms operations, as practised by Western militaries, would give Ukraine the best opportunity in winning the war.
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