本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Loonie may sink below 77 cents US this year: economist
Last Updated Wed, 19 Jan 2005 12:38:42 EST
CBC News
TORONTO - The Canadian dollar will fall back below 77 cents US by the end of 2005, an influential economist at CIBC World Markets predicted Wednesday.
Jeffrey Rubin, the brokerage's chief economist, expects the loonie will be weakened by a combination of three interest rate hikes in the United States this year and a rate cut in Canada, which would increase the spread between the two interest rates.
"Not only is the Bank of Canada unlikely to match further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve Board, but it will soon be pushed into a rate cut this year in order to prevent an already overvalued Canadian dollar from moving higher and deep-sixing the country's manufacturing and export sectors," said Rubin.
In forecasts issued late last year, some of Canada's big banks suggested that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates towards the end of 2005.
FROM Dec. 16, 2004: Moderate growth seen for Canadian economy in 2005
"Our forecast that the Bank of Canada will be lowering, not raising interest rates, may still be a little ahead of the curve, but it is unlikely to be so after another quarter or so of weakening economic performance," Rubin noted in CIBC World Markets' January economic forecast.
The brokerage expects economic growth this year will slow to 2.6 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the rising loonie on the country's export sector.
The slower economic growth is expected to push the Canadian unemployment rate up to 7.2 per cent. The national jobless rate stood at seven per cent in December.
Meanwhile, inflation is expected to remain relatively benign at just under two per cent, despite anticipated higher energy prices.
Rubin noted there is a chance that further weakening in the U.S. dollar could lift the euro and other currencies, a move that could pull the loonie close to its 1991 peak and threaten Canada with a major recession. However, he said that the Bank of Canada will not tolerate a further run-up in the loonie.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
Last Updated Wed, 19 Jan 2005 12:38:42 EST
CBC News
TORONTO - The Canadian dollar will fall back below 77 cents US by the end of 2005, an influential economist at CIBC World Markets predicted Wednesday.
Jeffrey Rubin, the brokerage's chief economist, expects the loonie will be weakened by a combination of three interest rate hikes in the United States this year and a rate cut in Canada, which would increase the spread between the two interest rates.
"Not only is the Bank of Canada unlikely to match further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve Board, but it will soon be pushed into a rate cut this year in order to prevent an already overvalued Canadian dollar from moving higher and deep-sixing the country's manufacturing and export sectors," said Rubin.
In forecasts issued late last year, some of Canada's big banks suggested that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates towards the end of 2005.
FROM Dec. 16, 2004: Moderate growth seen for Canadian economy in 2005
"Our forecast that the Bank of Canada will be lowering, not raising interest rates, may still be a little ahead of the curve, but it is unlikely to be so after another quarter or so of weakening economic performance," Rubin noted in CIBC World Markets' January economic forecast.
The brokerage expects economic growth this year will slow to 2.6 per cent, mainly due to the impact of the rising loonie on the country's export sector.
The slower economic growth is expected to push the Canadian unemployment rate up to 7.2 per cent. The national jobless rate stood at seven per cent in December.
Meanwhile, inflation is expected to remain relatively benign at just under two per cent, despite anticipated higher energy prices.
Rubin noted there is a chance that further weakening in the U.S. dollar could lift the euro and other currencies, a move that could pull the loonie close to its 1991 peak and threaten Canada with a major recession. However, he said that the Bank of Canada will not tolerate a further run-up in the loonie.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net