本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Joan Bryden, The Canadian Press
Published: Thursday, July 27, 2006
OTTAWA -- A new poll suggests Stephen Harper’s post-election surge in popularity has dissipated and dimmed his chances of turning his minority government into a majority.
The prime minister’s Conservatives lost ground in the country’s two crucial battlegrounds, Ontario and Quebec, according to the Decima poll made exclusively available to The Canadian Press.
The Decima results arrive like a bucket of ice water amid fevered speculation that Harper will try to engineer the defeat of his government this fall over the softwood lumber deal.
Harper has said the agreement, aimed at ending the longstanding softwood trade dispute with the United States, will be put to a vote in House of Commons in October. He has declared it will be a confidence vote, meaning the government will fall if a majority of MPs vote against the deal.
All three opposition parties have declared their opposition to the deal. And one Liberal leadership contender, Bob Rae, has dared Harper to call an early election over it.
The Liberals, afraid that Harper will pull the plug before they elect a new leader Dec. 3, have prepared contingency plans to accelerate the leadership selection process. And they’ve begun nominating candidates without waiting for a new leader to put his or her stamp on the election team.
But Decima Research CEO Bruce Anderson said all parties might want to cool their campaign jets.
The poll suggests a snap fall election wouldn’t be in any party’s interests, with the possible exception of the separatist Bloc Quebecois, and would produce virtually identical results to last January’s vote.
“As debate heats up about a possible fall election, these patterns might argue caution for the Conservatives, caution for the Liberals and caution for the NDP,” Anderson said.
“Arguably, they might create some modest bullishness for the BQ, but only compared to the kind of results they were looking at a few months ago.”
The telephone survey of 1,009 Canadians was conducted July 20-23, amid controversy over Harper’s unequivocal support for Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon despite the rising civilian death toll.
The Conservatives also came in for severe criticism for their initial response to the chaotic evacuation of Canadians fleeing Lebanon.
A sample this size is considered accurate within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points 19 times in 20.
Decima found support for all the parties had returned to almost exactly the same levels that produced the Conservative minority last January.
Nationally, the Conservatives had the support of 36 per cent, the Liberals 30 per cent and the New Democrats 17 per cent.
In the two provinces that will determine whether Harper can turn his minority into a majority, the Conservatives had lost the ground they gained during a post-election honeymoon.
In Quebec, the province Harper has wooed most assiduously, the poll found the BQ had rebounded to 43 per cent, up five points since a Decima poll in May, while the Tories had slipped six points to 23 per cent. The Liberals had 18 per cent and the NDP eight per cent.
And in Ontario, where the Tories and Liberals had been neck and neck as recently as mid-June, the poll found the Liberals had pulled into a nine-point lead with 43 per cent support, compared to 33 per cent for the Conservatives and 18 per cent for the NDP.
“These patterns suggest that some recovery of the Liberal brand may be underway in Ontario and also that the Conservative momentum in Quebec has reversed, at least for the time being,” Anderson said.
Given the high profile of the Middle East conflict, Anderson said: “It’s reasonable to speculate that some of the softening of Conservative support, at least in Quebec, may be linked to Canada’s alignment with the U.S. foreign policy (on Israel), coupled with major investments in military capabilities.”
Quebecers traditionally tend to be more pacifist than Canadians elsewhere.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
Published: Thursday, July 27, 2006
OTTAWA -- A new poll suggests Stephen Harper’s post-election surge in popularity has dissipated and dimmed his chances of turning his minority government into a majority.
The prime minister’s Conservatives lost ground in the country’s two crucial battlegrounds, Ontario and Quebec, according to the Decima poll made exclusively available to The Canadian Press.
The Decima results arrive like a bucket of ice water amid fevered speculation that Harper will try to engineer the defeat of his government this fall over the softwood lumber deal.
Harper has said the agreement, aimed at ending the longstanding softwood trade dispute with the United States, will be put to a vote in House of Commons in October. He has declared it will be a confidence vote, meaning the government will fall if a majority of MPs vote against the deal.
All three opposition parties have declared their opposition to the deal. And one Liberal leadership contender, Bob Rae, has dared Harper to call an early election over it.
The Liberals, afraid that Harper will pull the plug before they elect a new leader Dec. 3, have prepared contingency plans to accelerate the leadership selection process. And they’ve begun nominating candidates without waiting for a new leader to put his or her stamp on the election team.
But Decima Research CEO Bruce Anderson said all parties might want to cool their campaign jets.
The poll suggests a snap fall election wouldn’t be in any party’s interests, with the possible exception of the separatist Bloc Quebecois, and would produce virtually identical results to last January’s vote.
“As debate heats up about a possible fall election, these patterns might argue caution for the Conservatives, caution for the Liberals and caution for the NDP,” Anderson said.
“Arguably, they might create some modest bullishness for the BQ, but only compared to the kind of results they were looking at a few months ago.”
The telephone survey of 1,009 Canadians was conducted July 20-23, amid controversy over Harper’s unequivocal support for Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon despite the rising civilian death toll.
The Conservatives also came in for severe criticism for their initial response to the chaotic evacuation of Canadians fleeing Lebanon.
A sample this size is considered accurate within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points 19 times in 20.
Decima found support for all the parties had returned to almost exactly the same levels that produced the Conservative minority last January.
Nationally, the Conservatives had the support of 36 per cent, the Liberals 30 per cent and the New Democrats 17 per cent.
In the two provinces that will determine whether Harper can turn his minority into a majority, the Conservatives had lost the ground they gained during a post-election honeymoon.
In Quebec, the province Harper has wooed most assiduously, the poll found the BQ had rebounded to 43 per cent, up five points since a Decima poll in May, while the Tories had slipped six points to 23 per cent. The Liberals had 18 per cent and the NDP eight per cent.
And in Ontario, where the Tories and Liberals had been neck and neck as recently as mid-June, the poll found the Liberals had pulled into a nine-point lead with 43 per cent support, compared to 33 per cent for the Conservatives and 18 per cent for the NDP.
“These patterns suggest that some recovery of the Liberal brand may be underway in Ontario and also that the Conservative momentum in Quebec has reversed, at least for the time being,” Anderson said.
Given the high profile of the Middle East conflict, Anderson said: “It’s reasonable to speculate that some of the softening of Conservative support, at least in Quebec, may be linked to Canada’s alignment with the U.S. foreign policy (on Israel), coupled with major investments in military capabilities.”
Quebecers traditionally tend to be more pacifist than Canadians elsewhere.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net