I understand the US will probably target Mexico and China which it considers taking American jobs using their low-cost labor. But targeting Canada does not make too much sense since Canada does not compete by low-cost labor

omega4(omega)

The Canadian manufacturing sector is already hit hard by the rise of loony, competition from China and US recession, if the US opt out NAFTA, it will pretty much send this sector to the death bed. The manufacturing sector is critical in Ontario and Quebec, I can't imagine other sectors (including IT) will do too well if we continue to suffer huge job losses in manufacturing sector. And what if Canada retaliate by restricting export of oil, gas and other energy products to the US? Those sectors will be affected too.

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Last Updated: 2008-3-5
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He's more against Mexico than Canada. Canadian oil, gas and energy products are sold to US at such a low price because of NAFTA. No US president can afford to declare trade war with Canada. -omega4(omega); 2008-3-1 (#4300964@0)

Oil and energy are sold in world market price. -cerboros_redux(Cerboros Reborn); 2008-3-1 (#4301031@0)

Duty, Tax? And BC's hydro is exported to California at much cheaper than their local's. -gtaon08(GtaOn); 2008-3-1 (#4301119@0)
No, they are sold at OPEC price, and OPEC price is determined by how much oil the oil-producing nations are willing to supply to the rest of world. -omega4(omega); 2008-3-1 {163} (#4301124@0)
Just remember that the US will never back off on anything unless you have a way to force it to do so. Oil and energy are Canada's cards in any trade negotiation.

和我等嘛关系 -is4life(2008); 2008-3-1 (#4300970@0)

A change of NAFTA may give US a right to tariff Canadian imports. A few years ago, when the US tariff the Canadian softwood lumber, thounsands of workers in that industry lost jobs -omega4(omega); 2008-3-1 {78} (#4301002@0)
And the US eventually backed off after Canada threatened to halt oil shipment

As usual, you fabricated the fact. US put a duty on softwood imports. Canada did not threaten to shut off the oil. Canada eventually gave in and signed a deal to cap softwood exports. In the deal, Canada explicitly asks for two year notice period, -cerboros_redux(Cerboros Reborn); 2008-3-1 {43} (#4301029@0)
much longer than usual (6 month or 1 year).

I fabricated? What's this then? -omega4(omega); 2008-3-1 (#4301046@0)

这个文章并没有你说的“Canada threatened to halt oil shipment”。文章说加拿大打中国牌，向中国出口石油。事情发生在2005年马丁政府面临选举的时候。妥协是保守党政府做的。这期间加拿大从未说过要“halt oil shipment” -cerboros_redux(Cerboros Reborn); 2008-3-1 (#4301069@0)

So you are saying 'Imperil U.S. Access to Oil ' means 'Canada will export oil to China'? You need to do a better research before accusing others of fabricating -omega4(omega); 2008-3-1 (#4301081@0)

最直接的关系就是大批TN工作者要回到加拿大，TN是NAFTA的一部分。再有就是你从美国买东西回来除了要交税之外还要交关税。其他贸易影响不是直接的，但对双方打击却是巨大的。小奥同学搞这个绝对得不偿失，讨好了一部分人，得罪了很多人，毫无经济头脑。 -gtaon08(GtaOn); 2008-3-1 (#4301178@0)

It's very hard for Obama to win the Republicans. His name is Barak Hussein Obama. How will Americans feel when their future President's name resonate two of their most hated names? And his picture wearing Muslim gown will come back to haunt him. -omega4(omega); 2008-3-3 {112} (#4305402@0)

The Republicans are just waiting for him to take out Clinton, then they will start to dump the whole shit on him

Hilary Clinton won big statesTexas and Ohio, what you guys think will happen to the Canadian economy if the US does opt-out of NAFTA? -omega4(omega); 2008-3-5 (#4309190@0)

NAFTA的本质是取消北美贸易壁垒，但站在美国的立场，NAFTA十五年来一直没有变化，已不适合美国经济的现状，美国中部经济以低技术含量制造业为主，受加墨出口的冲击尤其大，NAFTA的重大修订势在必行，这对加拿大制造业绝对是个坏消息。对广大搞IT的TN们，则大可不必担心 -nodream(～～～); 2008-3-5 {154} (#4309607@0)

TN只是NAFTA名目繁多的条款之一，美国一直强调提高生产效率，而IT是主要手段之一，因此即使TN job list会被消减，也不会影响到IT，在可预见的未来IT的前景是光明的。

I understand the US will probably target Mexico and China which it considers taking American jobs using their low-cost labor. But targeting Canada does not make too much sense since Canada does not compete by low-cost labor -omega4(omega); 2008-3-5 {522} (#4309676@0)
The Canadian manufacturing sector is already hit hard by the rise of loony, competition from China and US recession, if the US opt out NAFTA, it will pretty much send this sector to the death bed. The manufacturing sector is critical in Ontario and Quebec, I can't imagine other sectors (including IT) will do too well if we continue to suffer huge job losses in manufacturing sector. And what if Canada retaliate by restricting export of oil, gas and other energy products to the US? Those sectors will be affected too.

Your understanding is incorrect. US competes with Canada but not China and Mexico. China goods has duty imposed. Unless US drastically increases the duty rate, Chinese goods are still cheap. US can not compete. -cerboros_redux(Cerboros Reborn); 2008-3-5 {704} (#4309750@0)
The problem is that Canada uses tricks to subsidize manufacturing industries at the suffering of US workers (and average Canadians). Just compare the Michigan/Ohio and Ontario. Michigan and Ohio has been declining for 20 years, but Ontario just started recently. There are many reasons, but main reason is that Canada government is able to play tricks quickly(such as no-tariff limit on auto imports). If there is no tricks at Canada side, it is impossible that the same auto sells 30~50% higher in Canada. Canada has been in trade surplus position for many years and has no intention to balance it, its attitude is the same as China - that is to sell as much as it can, but take back as less as it can.

US trade deficit with China was $256.3 billion in 2007, and the deficit with Canada was $64.2. Also most of this deficit is Canadian export of oil and other energy products not manufactured goods. -omega4(omega); 2008-3-5 {243} (#4309855@0)
In addition, Canada is a strong US ally in world stage and a NATO member, but China is its major competitor. I still believe what Clinton and Obama are saying about NAFTA is simply pre-election rhetoric rather than indication of policy changes

Interesting thing is most Canadians are strongly against Bush and the Republic party. However, the Bush administration has been a strong promoter of free trade which in large part contribute to the booming economies in Canada and China in recent years. -omega4(omega); 2008-3-5 {139} (#4309903@0)

This time again, Canadian put the wrong bet on Obama and Clinton, but in the end, it's a McCain Presidency that can help us economic-wise.

No worry. The conservative gv'nt will just be happy to see Sen. McCain be elected the president. Let those losers cry... who cares? -sookie(sookie); 2008-3-5 (#4311167@0)

That's why they sabotaged Obama in Ohio? Haha. They will be in trouble if Obama does get elected -omega4(omega); 2008-3-5 (#4311223@0)

obama? the next us president? let's wait and see... -sookie(sookie); 2008-3-6 (#4311457@0)

批斗木的用，俺们又没有权力投票 -meat_head(_); 2008-3-6 (#4311463@0)

好啊，让他们反对那副塔好了，这样美国老板们也就需要提高生产成本了，他们的竞争力就更差了。美国老板们也不答应 -jacky2001(beyond); 2008-3-6 (#4311479@0)

@

I understand the US will probably target Mexico and China which it considers taking American jobs using their low-cost labor. But targeting Canada does not make too much sense since Canada does not compete by low-cost labor

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