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30 days to go: Obama’s election to lose(ZT)

hipacific(crystalblue)
本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Today, there are 30 days remaining before the US votes on November 4th. In the coming weeks, I shall report on the events shaping the race, but right now this is Obama’s election to lose. He is an average of seven percentage points ahead in the national polls, and on top of this his votes are more evenly spread across the key battleground states that will actually determine the outcome of this election, whereas much of McCain’s support is concentrated in deep-red states like Nebraska that are going to vote for him anyway. This gives Obama an advantage: he can swing more states than McCain, who will receive countless wasted votes that only increase his margins of victory in solidly Republican states. Taking this into account, Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com calculates that Obama has an 84% chance of winning. Silver is a Democrat, and his mathematical model is contentious, but this does go to show that the media’s depiction of this race as toe-clenchingly close may be driven more by a desire to sell stories than by reality.

That all depends on Obama’s numbers holding up over the next 30 days. Will they? There is not long to go, but there is always the possibility of an ‘October surprise’ – an unexpected event which hurts or helps one candidate, like Osama Bin Laden’s release of a video on October 29th, 2004. Absent that, the dire state of the economy is likely to be at the forefront of people’s minds as they head into the voting booths – and that helps Obama.

Thomas Ash's blog | email this blogpdf version | quote
Post new comment更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
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Last Updated: 2008-10-5
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  • 枫下茶话 / 政治经济 / Is John McCain Doomed To Lose To Barack Obama? -hipacific(crystalblue); 2008-10-3 {1752} (#4740758@0)
    本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Is John McCain Doomed To Lose To Barack Obama?
    By Bonnie Erbe

    Oct 2, 2008
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    (US News) Of course, it's not over 'til it's over, but is this a sign it might be nearly over? Check this Associated Press filing from today:

    "Obama hammered McCain's economic record during a rally in Michigan, a state struggling with the country's highest unemployment rate. The Illinois senator's speech came several hours before knowledgeable Republican officials said McCain's campaign has given up trying to win Michigan and is shifting resources from there to other states."

    Then there's electoral-vote.com's calculation that shows Obama at 338 in the Electoral College and McCain at 185. I've seen Obama slightly above 300 on electoral-vote.com before. But just a week or two ago, McCain was ahead in Electoral College votes, and I've not seen the tally this far skewed in Obama's favor before.

    What could be McCain's game-changer during the next four weeks? It's not likely to be tonight's vice presidential debate, given the contestants. A sudden turnaround in the economy? Also dubious, given that Goldman Sachs is forecasting no growth this quarter or in the first quarter of '09. A slam-dunk victory in one of the next two presidential debates? Again, less likely than the boost he might have gotten had he bested Obama in the first debate. Palin dropping off the ticket? Boy, would he anger the conservative base if he took that turn in the road. An October surprise? By my calculations, it would take nothing short of Russia invading yet another former satellite nation or an unimaginable terrorist strike. Neither of those things is anything anyone should hope for.更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
    • 他们将拿出最恶毒的招数，将Obama与黑人极端言论以及恐怖分子联系起来，恐吓选民。 -wymontreal(Sean); 2008-10-4 (#4742660@0)
    • 没啥好预计的。经济前景这么差，McCain，换了任何一个共和党的，都是白给。Obama也好不到哪里去，做完一任后，经济前景不明朗，下台的几率也很高。就是酱紫的 -is4life(随波逐流); 2008-10-4 (#4742705@0)
    • 30 days to go: Obama’s election to lose(ZT) -hipacific(crystalblue); 2008-10-5 {1576} (#4743448@0)
      本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛Today, there are 30 days remaining before the US votes on November 4th. In the coming weeks, I shall report on the events shaping the race, but right now this is Obama’s election to lose. He is an average of seven percentage points ahead in the national polls, and on top of this his votes are more evenly spread across the key battleground states that will actually determine the outcome of this election, whereas much of McCain’s support is concentrated in deep-red states like Nebraska that are going to vote for him anyway. This gives Obama an advantage: he can swing more states than McCain, who will receive countless wasted votes that only increase his margins of victory in solidly Republican states. Taking this into account, Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com calculates that Obama has an 84% chance of winning. Silver is a Democrat, and his mathematical model is contentious, but this does go to show that the media’s depiction of this race as toe-clenchingly close may be driven more by a desire to sell stories than by reality.

      That all depends on Obama’s numbers holding up over the next 30 days. Will they? There is not long to go, but there is always the possibility of an ‘October surprise’ – an unexpected event which hurts or helps one candidate, like Osama Bin Laden’s release of a video on October 29th, 2004. Absent that, the dire state of the economy is likely to be at the forefront of people’s minds as they head into the voting booths – and that helps Obama.

      Thomas Ash's blog | email this blogpdf version | quote
      Post new comment更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
    • McCain肯定输了。和能力没有关系，关键是bush的人气太差了。前几天有个民意调查，准备选Obama的人30%因为他是民主党（就是选党不选人的），10%因为他是黑人（几乎所有的黑人以及某些少数族裔），而其余60%因为觉得不能再选共和党了。 -steve888(Steve曾经曰过); 2008-10-5 (#4743588@0)

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