本文发表在 rolia.net 枫下论坛对于ican 和baisuzhen对crisis 随想的回帖，hehe, 说明一下啊，自己不是高人，刚开始在投行干不多久，处于学习和知识积累的原始阶段。要求自己 follow markets, make sense of what's happening now and what’s happened in the past, 就可以啦。Only if 一年前能写出现在发生的事情，哈哈，那我早就成亿万富翁了。Think of Lehman's stock, 52 week high of $67.73 and closing yesterday at $0.29. 更不用说利用杠杆 and long put options 等等的回报了。
当然，forward looking, predicting future 是自己努力的方向，现在还远远没有那个水平。实业家和金融家，一个经营实体，一个经营预期。A senior or successful banker, economist, investment professional or financier 都是在做predicting the future with the definition of success being a higher possibility of accuracy on average over time. 通俗的说是bets on a binary outcome: Long position 是说你看好未来, 你认定underlying assets 会涨，Short position 则相反。这个underlying asset 可以是实物，比如 real estate, commodities. 也可以是虚物，a paper claim or contract. 比如 bonds, stocks, options.
能先人一步，看出大势，提前布局，才是牛人。成为牛人，要站在前人的肩膀上，精通历史的前提下，Look forward to make reasonable bets. Bernanke 被称为研究1929-1933 Great Depression 的第一人。有此基础，才能掌门Fed, 决定未来as he makes interest rate decision 是基于对未来六个月或者一年经济，市场的预期 given the lagging effects。
事物都有两面性，辩证的统一于一体。比如Finance 的核心就两个字：Risk + Reward. 所有一切的金融活动都围绕着这两个字。金融活动放大了的人性, 也就两个字：Fear + Greed， 对应于金融的R&R. 我对risk的理解，risk=uncertainty. Uncertaintyyou are making bets now on future events/outcomesuccess or failure = judgment call of a probability on outcome. No arbitrage 的另外一个定义是：Future cash flow with CERTAINTY must earn RISK FREE rate. Rate spread 恰恰是uncertainty 的体现。正因为 risk, uncertainty, bets, rewards 金融行业才是那么的精彩，那么的令人exciting. 投行的人很多喜欢Poker game，因为poker game 一样在玩 risk, rewards, bet with uncertainty.
大成功者，常常能在绝望中看到机遇，在疯狂中看到涅灭。巴菲特在市场对投行一片绝望之时，砸向GS 5 billions. GS 在07年初所有商行和投行都为之疯狂的mortgage securities 中took short position，成为唯一一家没有report loss的big financial institution. 看到帖子，有人问投行是不是就此没落了，要我说，yes and no. Yes because standalone investment BANK 确实不存在了，No because Investment BANKING绝对不会没落，只是经历一个big cycle, and big adjustments, 两三年后在废墟（也是养料）之中，会重新站起而更加辉煌。这是capital markets 资本主义核心特征决定的。
另一个帖子说，家长给孩子选专业，远离金融，还是医生好。个人感觉，现在恰恰应该进学校学金融。1. You not only learn the books, but have a chance to learn much much more by observing markets combined with your knowledge from school. 2. 就像买房买股票，大部分人是买涨不买跌，所以挣钱的人是少数。如果你同意这是一个cycle, 就应该在现在金融危机，到处layoff的时候入场，而非相反。2005，2006 年经济腾飞，金融烫手的时候去学MBA 现在毕业，很难找工作。两三年后，实体经济起稳发展，虚拟经济（金融业）的作用就是放大实体经济的辉煌而会更加灿烂。3。更不要说中国的金融人才需求，given the potential to develop our homeland’s capital markets.
最后再说一下自己对投行的理解, zuluking 写过这方面很好的文章。投行有广义和狭义之分。广义的投行很广，包括investment banking, capital markets (that include debt capital markets DCM, and equity capital markets, ECM, foreign exchanges, derivatives markets), sales and trading, or even include brokerage and equity research. 纯正的投行是指狭义的Investment Banking. 主要做两个业务线：Capital raising and M&A advisory. Capital raising 帮企业从markets中筹钱，包括IPO, secondary offering, debt underwriting, private placements. M&A financial advisor 就是帮企业买或卖assets or entities. 有人说Lehman 投行干的活就是自己投5块，leverage up 95, 再卖出101 or 102. 这仅仅是 Lehman capital markets division 的 一小部分业务，i.e., financial products origination and sales. 看看official news on a deal that says “Barclays … acquired Lehman's North American investment banking and capital markets businesses for $250 million in cash...” Investment banking 和capital markets 两个部门干的不是一样的活。
码字不易，很费时间，休息去了，还会常来。呵呵。更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net
当然，forward looking, predicting future 是自己努力的方向，现在还远远没有那个水平。实业家和金融家，一个经营实体，一个经营预期。A senior or successful banker, economist, investment professional or financier 都是在做predicting the future with the definition of success being a higher possibility of accuracy on average over time. 通俗的说是bets on a binary outcome: Long position 是说你看好未来, 你认定underlying assets 会涨，Short position 则相反。这个underlying asset 可以是实物，比如 real estate, commodities. 也可以是虚物，a paper claim or contract. 比如 bonds, stocks, options.
能先人一步，看出大势，提前布局，才是牛人。成为牛人，要站在前人的肩膀上，精通历史的前提下，Look forward to make reasonable bets. Bernanke 被称为研究1929-1933 Great Depression 的第一人。有此基础，才能掌门Fed, 决定未来as he makes interest rate decision 是基于对未来六个月或者一年经济，市场的预期 given the lagging effects。
事物都有两面性，辩证的统一于一体。比如Finance 的核心就两个字：Risk + Reward. 所有一切的金融活动都围绕着这两个字。金融活动放大了的人性, 也就两个字：Fear + Greed， 对应于金融的R&R. 我对risk的理解，risk=uncertainty. Uncertaintyyou are making bets now on future events/outcomesuccess or failure = judgment call of a probability on outcome. No arbitrage 的另外一个定义是：Future cash flow with CERTAINTY must earn RISK FREE rate. Rate spread 恰恰是uncertainty 的体现。正因为 risk, uncertainty, bets, rewards 金融行业才是那么的精彩，那么的令人exciting. 投行的人很多喜欢Poker game，因为poker game 一样在玩 risk, rewards, bet with uncertainty.
大成功者，常常能在绝望中看到机遇，在疯狂中看到涅灭。巴菲特在市场对投行一片绝望之时，砸向GS 5 billions. GS 在07年初所有商行和投行都为之疯狂的mortgage securities 中took short position，成为唯一一家没有report loss的big financial institution. 看到帖子，有人问投行是不是就此没落了，要我说，yes and no. Yes because standalone investment BANK 确实不存在了，No because Investment BANKING绝对不会没落，只是经历一个big cycle, and big adjustments, 两三年后在废墟（也是养料）之中，会重新站起而更加辉煌。这是capital markets 资本主义核心特征决定的。
另一个帖子说，家长给孩子选专业，远离金融，还是医生好。个人感觉，现在恰恰应该进学校学金融。1. You not only learn the books, but have a chance to learn much much more by observing markets combined with your knowledge from school. 2. 就像买房买股票，大部分人是买涨不买跌，所以挣钱的人是少数。如果你同意这是一个cycle, 就应该在现在金融危机，到处layoff的时候入场，而非相反。2005，2006 年经济腾飞，金融烫手的时候去学MBA 现在毕业，很难找工作。两三年后，实体经济起稳发展，虚拟经济（金融业）的作用就是放大实体经济的辉煌而会更加灿烂。3。更不要说中国的金融人才需求，given the potential to develop our homeland’s capital markets.
最后再说一下自己对投行的理解, zuluking 写过这方面很好的文章。投行有广义和狭义之分。广义的投行很广，包括investment banking, capital markets (that include debt capital markets DCM, and equity capital markets, ECM, foreign exchanges, derivatives markets), sales and trading, or even include brokerage and equity research. 纯正的投行是指狭义的Investment Banking. 主要做两个业务线：Capital raising and M&A advisory. Capital raising 帮企业从markets中筹钱，包括IPO, secondary offering, debt underwriting, private placements. M&A financial advisor 就是帮企业买或卖assets or entities. 有人说Lehman 投行干的活就是自己投5块，leverage up 95, 再卖出101 or 102. 这仅仅是 Lehman capital markets division 的 一小部分业务，i.e., financial products origination and sales. 看看official news on a deal that says “Barclays … acquired Lehman's North American investment banking and capital markets businesses for $250 million in cash...” Investment banking 和capital markets 两个部门干的不是一样的活。
码字不易，很费时间，休息去了，还会常来。呵呵。更多精彩文章及讨论，请光临枫下论坛 rolia.net