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Great!

couple of comments:

1. Inflation is not the no.1 issue for the coming two years at this stage of the game, unemployment rate is. Look at today's manufacturing data.

2. It's not important to whom this $700 bln being sold to; it's important from whom and at WHAT PRICE the revised bailout plan buy.

To clean out the "toxic assets" on financial institutions' balance sheet and restore the lending confidence / credit liquidity, buying up those craps by the treasury is a practical plan. However, due to the information asymmetry, the buying price maybe tricky in this "lemon" market. Let alone even the owner and originators may could not figure out the fair value now.

3. The drop of commodity (except gold, the safe-heaven) and energy was due to the fears of inflation and US$' depreciation, but the expectation of the economy slowdown after the failure of bailout plan.
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Replies, comments and Discussions:

  • 随想系列之三 :Bail-out and Inflation
    • 我前几天提到了两个人Bernanke和Irving Fisher。Bernanke是研究Fisher的高手。他们俩都是Debt-deflation问题的专家。这次的危机,很多经济学家认为是debt-deflation,deflation现在还表现得不明显。如果真是这样,通涨是好事。
    • 这两天油价起落应该主要是供求影响。担心经济衰退石油需求减少。现在要防的是通缩。消费意愿减少和失业率上升都是通缩的前兆。市场上流通的钞票多了,并不一定引起通涨。钞票多,交换多才有通涨。通涨对解决这次危机考量上不是重点。如果救市以后有指标显示通胀,是好事。
      • "这两天油价起落应该主要是供求影响。担心经济衰退石油需求减少。现在要防的是通缩" - Agree
    • Thanks you!
    • 中国要是不买美国国债,台湾就不会这么太平,日本也不会这么乖,中东的石油也不会这么顺畅的流过来。国家利益很难用货币价值来衡量。
      • 宋朝要是不给大辽岁币,边关就不会这么太平,西夏也不会这么乖,草原的牛羊也不会这么顺畅的流过来。国家利益很难用货币价值来衡量。
    • Great!
      couple of comments:

      1. Inflation is not the no.1 issue for the coming two years at this stage of the game, unemployment rate is. Look at today's manufacturing data.

      2. It's not important to whom this $700 bln being sold to; it's important from whom and at WHAT PRICE the revised bailout plan buy.

      To clean out the "toxic assets" on financial institutions' balance sheet and restore the lending confidence / credit liquidity, buying up those craps by the treasury is a practical plan. However, due to the information asymmetry, the buying price maybe tricky in this "lemon" market. Let alone even the owner and originators may could not figure out the fair value now.

      3. The drop of commodity (except gold, the safe-heaven) and energy was due to the fears of inflation and US$' depreciation, but the expectation of the economy slowdown after the failure of bailout plan.